If you love wagering on Arsenal games, it is imperative to understand the concept of ‘betting value’ before parting with your hard-earned cash.
In simple terms, a value bet is an instance where the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the true probability of an event occurring in a match-up.
Calculating value bets while engaging in Novibet soccer betting could give you a significant competitive advantage when wagering. Read on as we take a closer look.
What is a value bet?
A value bet is based on this formula:
- Value = (Odds × Probability) −1
If the calculation of this formula is more than zero, it is considered a value bet.
For example, if you believe Arsenal have a 50 percent chance of claiming victory with odds of 2.00, but they are priced at 2.25, this is a value bet situation.
Understanding implied probability
Bookmakers’ betting odds are set according to implied probability There are formulas for decimal odds or fractional odds which allow to calculate whether it is a value bet or not.
- Decimal odds formula: Probability = (1/odds) × 100
- Fractional odds formula: Probability = [Denominator/(Denominator + Numerator)] × 100
After calculating the probability of the bet happening based on the bookmakers’ implied probability, if it is higher than the answer, this is a value bet.
For example, if an implied probability for Arsenal winning is 2.50, solving the formula would look like this:
- (1/250) x 100 = 40%
In this scenario, if you think Arsenal have more than a 40% chance of winning a game, you should place the bet.
Conducting a personal probability assessment
You must conduct a personal probability assessment before placing a bet on Arsenal, to ensure you are getting value on your wagers.
This involves analysing historical data to achieve an overall scope of what you believe is the probability of a specific event happening based on how they have previously performed.
You should start with the Gunners’ recent results against a particular opponent. How did the players perform individually, and how did they work together?
While the head-to-head record is not the only factor to consider, it can be a useful yardstick when determining Arsenal’s chances of winning a game.
Here are some of the other ways you can gather data to conduct a personal probability assessment:
- Find out about the injuries, suspensions and other team news that could impact form.
- Where is the game being played? Home teams often have an advantage.
- How do the tactical systems of each team match up against each other?
- Study the fixtures schedule. A hectic run of games can impact results.
Compare your odds with the bookmakers’ odds
Once you have estimated Arsenal’s true probability of success, it is time to convert this into decimal odds using this formula:
- Fair odds = 1/Your probability estimate
Once you get the number from this formula, compare it with the bookmakers’ odds. If they are greater than your probability estimate, this is considered a value bet.
Let’s say your probability estimate calculates that Arsenal have a 60% chance of winning a game at Manchester United.
The fair odds in this scenario are 1.66. If a bookmaker is offering higher odds, this is a value bet. Leveraging these situations will help you make a consistent profit when wagering.
It is worth noting that earnings from value betting vary based on factors such as your starting bankroll, number of bets placed, stake size and the quality of value opportunities.
While individual results will vary, a disciplined approach and steady bet volume will help to keep your betting balance in the black.
